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2012: the BRICs will take the growth lead
Posted By Dirk Hopfl On September 30, 2011 @ 1:50 am In IE News | No Comments
IE Business School survey reveals that expectations for economic growth in 2012 are focused on the BRICs. The highest growth rates in 2012 will be found in the BRIC countries. So say 94% of the directors who participated in the 2012 IE Global Alumni Forum (GAF) survey of the world economic outlook for 2012.
Some 827 directors from 61 countries in all five continents took part in the survey, drawn up by IE Business School in the lead up to its Global Alumni Forum – GAF Madrid 2011, set to take place on September 30. Speakers include Ángel Gurría, General secretary of the OECD, who will be examining the world economic Outlook, together with Guillermo de la Dehesa, President of IE’s International Advisory Board de IE.
According to participants in the survey the BRICs are the countries with the greatest potential for growth in 2012, with Brazil being the country most expected to have the highest rates (40%), followed by China (39%), India (17%) and Russia (5%). Meanwhile, 91% of participants think that the Latin American region will either maintain its current rate or grow faster. The survey results point to a generally held belief that the Latin American countries with the best future potential were Brazil (58%), Chile (17%) and Peru (10%). With regard to Europe, 77% feel that the European economy will stabilize or grow in 2012. Sixty two percent think the same about the EU. Within the EU, 64% consider that Germany will have the best growth rate, followed by Poland (7%) and the UK (5%).“The latest forecast issued by the International Monetary Fund states that global growth will slow down in 2011 and 2012 to 4%, approximately one point below the 2010 rate.” says Gayle Allard, Professor of Economics at IE Business School. Allard went on to explain that the highest rates of growth (6.4) were expected to come from developing countries, mainly China (9%) India (7-8%), and Latin America (3-4%), “While advanced economies will see far weaker growth rates of around 1.6%.”
With regards to what is happening in business organizations, 26% of the directors who took part in the survey underscored the appearance of signs of improvement in 2011 compared to 2010, such as the implementation of new projects (26%), rises in sales (12%) or the hiring of new personnel (12%). However, some 39% had seen no positive signs in the companies where they work in the course of 2010, and reported seeing bad signs, including falling sales, redundancies and difficulties in getting funding.
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